TFM Morning Update 03-21-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning and has been trading in a narrow range, but today, prices broke above the 50-day moving average in the May contract for the first time since December.
The export sales report will be released today, and the average trade range expected is between 900k and 1,200k tons with an average guess of 1,063k tons. Overall, exports have been stronger than expected recently.
US ethanol stocks rose by 0.9% to 26.009m bbl according to the Department of Energy’s petroleum report. Plant production came in at 1.046m barrels per day which compared to the survey average of 1.03m.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning after yesterday’s sharp rally into the close which saw prices up 24 cents in the May contract and well above the 50-day moving average which had previously acted as resistance.
While support has come from soybean meal and oil, Argentinian weather may be the driver behind this move. The country has received too much rain recently with more in the forecast, and it is now saturating fields and causing floods which could damage soybeans and corn.
Today’s export sales report estimates are within a wide range from 270k and 700k tons with an average guess of 480k. Sales activity has been limited until yesterday when a flash sale of 120,000 mt was reported to unknown destinations.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way higher. There has been little friendly news, but dryness in the US Plains and Black Sea region has been supportive.
Europe’s grain production estimates have been cut by 1 mmt to 295.5m tons due to wet weather planting delays in the region. This harvest is still expected to be larger than last year’s, and the primarily affected countries are France, Germany, the UK, and Poland.
Estimates for today’s export sales report in wheat are not expected to be impressive with the range between -200k and 300k tons with an average guess of 78k. Russia continues to dominate exports.

Amanda Brill