TFM Morning Update 03-22-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex after May corn broke above the 50-day moving average yesterday but faded into the end of the day settling just below it.
In the US, the Corn Belt is forecast to receive good moisture over the next 7 days which should help soil moisture levels ahead of planting. Above normal precipitation is expected for part of the Corn Belt.
Estimates for Argentinian corn production were lowered by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange yesterday by 2.5 mmt to 54.0 mmt as a result of too much rain in the growing areas. Harvest is estimated at 3.7% complete.

Soybeans are lower this morning after yesterday’s volatile price action, which saw May soybeans rally to nearly 20 cents higher before fading and settling only 2 cents higher. Soybeans are currently unchanged on the week.
Both soybean meal and oil are lower this morning although they have been trending slightly higher over the past few weeks. Palm oil had been strong support for soybean oil, but palm oil has begun consolidating.
Drought is threatening the water levels on the Mississippi River for a third year. Barge shipments have fallen to 464k tons in the week ending March 16 from 593k tons the previous week. Soybean shipments were down 25% from last week.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning but are on track for a gain on the week. Today, prices are lower despite escalations between Russia and Ukraine, and the EU increasing tariffs on Russian wheat.
SovEcon has raised its estimate for the 2024 Russian wheat crop by 400k tons to 94 mmt due to a lack of winter damage and a sufficient amount of moisture reserves.
Egypt’s state buyer has stopped purchasing wheat through private negotiations with traders and will source supplies only in tenders.

Amanda Brill