TFM Morning Update 03-23-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher to start the week, with December contracts pushing toward key psychological resistance near $5.00. May corn futures are up 6-3/4 cents at $4.72-1/4, while December corn is 6-1/4 cents higher at $4.97-1/2.
Crude oil has traded within a relatively tight $90 to $100 range over the past week. Much of the recent strength in corn may have already been priced in alongside elevated energy values, leaving near-term direction in the corn market closely tied to movements in crude oil.
President Trump sharply escalated tensions over the weekend, warning that the U.S. would target and “obliterate” Iran’s power infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened within 48 hours. The threat marks a significant shift in tone, coming just days after earlier comments suggesting a potential de-escalation of the conflict, which is now entering its fourth week.

Soybean futures are trading modestly higher this morning as the market continues to stabilize following last week’s sharp losses. May soybean futures are up 5-3/4 cents at $11.67, while November soybeans are 6-1/4 cents higher at $11.47-1/4.
China continues to show limited interest in U.S. soybeans. Purchases during January and February 2025 totaled just 1.5 million metric tons, marking an 84% decline from the same period last year and highlighting the ongoing weakness in export demand.
Brazil’s soybean harvest continues to progress but remains slightly behind last year’s pace. Farmers have harvested 65.79% of the expected 2025/26 soybean area, compared to 73.84% at the same time a year ago. However, progress is still near the five-year average of 66.96%.

Wheat futures are trading higher across all three classes this morning. May Chicago wheat is up 7 cents at $6.02-1/4, Kansas City wheat is 7 cents higher at $6.13-1/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is up 6-1/2 cents at $6.34-1/2.
According to USDA data as of March 17, 55% of U.S. winter wheat acres remain in drought conditions, unchanged from the previous week. Spring wheat drought exposure also held steady at 21%, signaling little to no improvement in overall moisture conditions.
Weather forecaster Vaisala indicated last week that ongoing dry conditions across the central and southern Plains are expected to keep soil moisture levels limited for winter wheat over the next 30 to 60 days.

Matthew Lucas