TFM Morning Update 03-25-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower to begin the week but has traded either side of unchanged in the overnight. May futures remain in a very narrow trading range and are currently between the 40-day and 50-day moving average.
Strong export sales and a strong ethanol grinding pace have been supportive to corn futures, but the reality of over a 2 billion bushel corn carryout is making significant rallies difficult to come by, let alone sustain.
For the week ending March 19, funds were seen buying back 12,940 contracts of corn which reduced their net short position to 242,988 contracts. It is a bit concerning that even with funds buying back shorts, prices have not moved much higher.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning after Friday’s sharp selloff, and May futures remain just above the 50-day moving average. Higher soybean oil is providing the support thanks to a rally in palm oil.
The USDA attaché in Brazil has lowered their estimate for 23/24 soybean production. Total production has been lowered to 152.6 mmt from the previous guess of 157.5 mmt citing poor weather at the end of 2023.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 6,798 contracts of their net short position reducing it to 148,399 contracts. Similar to corn, the short covering hasn’t had a very bullish effect on prices.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with May Chicago wheat gaining over 26 cents last week. Cold weather is moving through Kansas and Oklahoma and could impact the winter wheat crop.
Over the weekend, Russia focused more attacks on Ukraine’s port city of Odesa. Instead of hitting the typical agricultural infrastructure targets, Russia went after power plants which has raised concerns of power outages that would impact port operations.
Last week’s CFTC report interestingly showed funds adding to their net short position despite a rally in the futures. They sold 1,700 contracts of wheat which increased their net short position to 80,570 contracts.

Amanda Brill