TFM Morning Update 03-25-2026

CORN

Corn futures are trading lower this morning, pressured by weakness in the energy markets. May corn is down 3 cents at $4.59-1/2, while December corn is 2-3/4 cents lower at $4.86-1/4.
The EPA is expected to release biofuel blending requirements for 2026 and 2027 before the end of the month, potentially during President Trump’s “Celebration of Agriculture” event on Friday, March 27. Any increase in blending mandates could provide support to ethanol demand.
EIA data is set to be released Wednesday morning, with ethanol production expected to come in steady to slightly higher for the week ending March 20.

Soybean futures are trading modestly higher this morning as the market continues to consolidate. May soybeans are up 3-1/4 cents at $11.58-1/4, while November soybeans are 1-3/4 cents higher at $11.45-1/2.
Soybean oil came under pressure alongside crude oil, as prices declined on reports that the U.S. is pursuing a potential month-long ceasefire in its conflict with Iran. Oil prices dropped more than 5% on Wednesday amid optimism that a ceasefire could ease supply disruptions across the key Middle East producing region.
Iran denied being engaged in any negotiations with Washington, and the rejection, alongside escalating military activity, has tempered expectations for near-term de-escalation.

The wheat complex is trading lower across all three classes this morning. May Chicago wheat is down 7-1/2 cents at $5.82-1/2, Kansas City wheat is 6-3/4 cents lower at $5.97-1/2, and Minneapolis spring wheat is down 5-3/4 cents at $6.25-1/2.
Select states released updated winter wheat crop ratings as of March 22, showing some deterioration in key areas. Kansas declined 6 points to 46% good to excellent, Colorado fell 5 points to 24%, and Oklahoma dropped 4 points to 14%. Texas saw a slight improvement, rising 1 point to 16% good to excellent.
According to Interfax, Russian grain exports have accelerated sharply in March, with shipments running roughly three times higher year-over-year. Exports for the period from March 1–20 totaled 3.5 million metric tons, including 3.1 million metric tons of wheat.

Matthew Lucas