TFM Morning Update 03-26-2025

CORN

Corn is mixed to start the day with the front months slightly higher and new crop contracts slightly lower in quiet trade. Prices have been rangebound ahead of the planting intentions report and potential tariffs in the beginning of April.
Early estimates for planting intentions see corn acres at 94.4 million with a range between 92.5 and 96.6 million. This compares to the USDA outlook forum’s 94.0 ma and 90.6 ma planted last year.
Estimates for the weekly ethanol production report see production lower than last week at 1.084 million barrels per day and stockpiles at 26.76m bbl compared to 26.58m a week ago.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning after three consecutive days of losses. Futures have been rangebound as trade expects a lower acreage number but deals with poor export demand. Soybean meal is trading lower while bean oil is higher.
Estimates for the planting intentions report on the 31st see 83.8 ma of soybeans planted with a range between 82.5 and 85.5 ma. This would compare to the Outlook Forum’s guess of 84.0 ma and 87.1 ma last year.
AgRural has cut its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop to 165.9 mmt on disappointing yields in the South. This is now below the USDA’s estimate of 169 mmt. Harvest in the country is 73.84% complete.

Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago and KC trading lower while Minneapolis trades slightly higher. Dry weather forecasts across HRW areas should be friendly to prices with crop conditions falling.
Russia and Ukraine both agreed to a maritime and energy truce in exchange for eased sanctions by the US. This should make shipping grains out of the Black Sea easier.
The weekly crop report yesterday showed good to excellent ratings in Kansas improving by 1 point to 49% while in Oklahoma, ratings fell by 9 points to just 37%. Texas improved by 3 points to 31% good to excellent.

Amanda Brill