TFM Morning Update 03-27-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher to start the day after two days of losses that saw May corn losing 13 cents and falling below support at the 200-day moving average. Tariff fears and the upcoming planting intentions report have pressured the market.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 600k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 1,008k tons. This would compare to 1,558k a week ago and 1,333k a year ago at this time.
Yesterday’s ethanol stocks report saw stocks rise by 2.9% to 27.35m bbl which compares to analyst expectations of 26.759m. Plant production came in at 1.053m b/d compared to estimates of 1.084m.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning and have fared the best this week between corn and wheat as prices remain rangebound but have not sold off as trade expects a small acreage number in Monday’s report. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher this morning.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 900k tons with an average guess of 492k tons. This would compare to 353k last week and 384k tons the previous year.
The Brazilian soybean harvest is reportedly nearly completed on schedule with production estimates at 169.3 mmt which is on par with the USDA’s estimate.

All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day with Minneapolis wheat leading the way higher. Ukraine and Russia may be arranging a maritime ceasefire which has pressured markets, but both countries have been able to export grain by other methods, so the ceasefire may not have a large effect.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 100k and 600k tons with an average guess of 383k tons. This would compare to 242k last week and 552k the year before.
Ukrainian grain exports are down 6% on the season so far with 32.3m tons of grain. Wheat exports as of May 31 were 12.9m tons which was down 4.4%.

Amanda Brill