TFM Morning Update 03-28-2024

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be Closed Friday, March 29, 2024, in Observance of Good Friday

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher to unchanged this morning with a very narrow range in the overnight movement as traders await the results of today’s quarterly stocks and acreage report at 11am central.
Yesterday’s ethanol production report showed an increase in production to 1.54 million barrels per day which was the highest week recorded for the third week in March.
Estimates for today’s report average around 92 million acres of planted corn which would be 2 mmt fewer than the previous year. Corn stocks are expected to come in at 8.45 billion bushels which would be higher than last year.

Soybeans are trading lower for the third consecutive day but still remain just above support at the 50-day moving average. Traders are likely factoring in the early estimates for higher planted soybean acres. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
Yesterday, Brazilian consultancy firm Agroconsult increased their estimates for total soybean production to 156.5 mmt which is much closer to the USDA’s estimate of 157 mmt and lends doubt to CONAB’s low estimate of 149 mmt.
Estimates for today’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report show planted soybean acres at 86.3 million acres which would be up 3 ma from the previous year. Soybean stocks are estimated at 1.83 billion bushels.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC wheat trading slightly higher but Minn wheat trading unchanged to slightly lower. Chicago wheat has been relatively rangebound and has hovered around the 21-day moving average.
Estimates for today’s USDA report show total acreage at 49.6 million acres which is lower than last year, and wheat stocks are expected around 1.053 bb which reflects the sore lack of export sales this marketing year.
In the EU, the production for the 24/25 wheat crop is expected to fall by 4% year over year at 120.8 million tons, down 5 mmt from the previous year.

Amanda Brill