TFM Morning Update 04-01-2024

CORN

Corn is retreating slightly this morning after big gains on Thursday following the release of the quarterly stocks and acreage report which saw the USDA estimate planted corn acres at just 90.0 million acres for 2024 which was well below expectations.
While Thursday’s report was bullish for corn, the decline in acreage would only represent a loss of 360 mb of corn and would likely leave ending stocks above 2 billion bushels. The other thing to consider is the unaccounted 6 million acres used for crops that could be found during the growing season.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds increasing their net short position as of March 26. They were sellers of 8,742 contracts of corn which brought their total short position to 251,730. A portion of that position was likely bought back on Friday.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning after volatile trade on Thursday which ultimately saw soybeans close just a penny lower. This morning’s higher prices are a reflection of higher soybean meal as the palm oil market moves higher.
Thursday’s USDA report ended up being well within trade expectations for soybeans and held no real surprises. Planting intentions were up from last year at 86.5 million acres with stocks expected higher as well.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans as of March 26. They bought back 13,559 contracts of soybeans which decreased their net short position to 134,780 contracts.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way down. Futures were higher after Thursday’s report with the USDA showing lower winter wheat acreage but higher than expected spring wheat acres.
Ukrainian exports of grains have fallen by 7.5% year over year at 34.6 mmt. 13.7 mmt of wheat have been exported including 1.9 mmt so far in March.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of both Chicago and KC wheat. They sold 11.532 contracts of Chicago wheat increasing their net short position to 92,102 contracts. In KC wheat, they sold 4,781 contracts increasing their short position to 42,638 contracts.

Amanda Brill