TFM Morning Update 04-02-2024

CORN

Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning after losing just over 6 cents yesterday in the May contract. These losses have wiped out half of the gains from Thursday’s report, and May futures have fallen back to the 40-day moving average.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA Grain Crushings report was released and showed a record high February ethanol grind. They also revised the January grind higher, and this points to potentially higher numbers on the April report than expected.
Yesterday’s lower prices were likely linked to the extremely sharp selloff in the cattle complex which is likely a result of the concerns and unknowns of the avian flu infections impacting feed demand.

Soybeans are trading unchanged to slightly higher this morning but have trended lower since the March high was posted on the 21st. May futures are sandwiched between the 40 and 50-day moving averages.
Yesterday afternoon, the Fats and Oils report was released and saw a new record for February soybean crush at 196.4 mb. This was slightly lower than the average trade guess, but crush the month of February is up 5.4% so far.
Soybean oil is higher again this morning, up by about 1% thanks to more gains in palm oil and higher demand in general for veg oils. Soybean meal is trading lower continuing its trend.

All three wheat classes are trading lower to unchanged this morning with KC wheat again posting the largest losses. May Chicago wheat remains about 30 cents off of the contract lows in March but has been mostly rangebound on lack of news.
Yesterday, export inspections for wheat came in at 499k tons which was above the highest range of trade guesses and was about the 433k tons the previous week. China was the main purchaser of wheat. Total wheat inspections are now down 12% from the previous year.
India is expected to need to import wheat in the 24/25 marketing year despite expectations of a record harvest. This is due to a decline in government stockpiles and low prices globally. This would be the first time that India imported wheat since 2017.

Amanda Brill