TFM Morning Update 04-02-2025

CORN

Corn is down as the market braces for the expected rollout of additional U.S. tariffs today, which could negatively impact corn exports to both Mexico and the EU.
Forecasts show dry conditions in southern/eastern Brazil, while the U.S. Delta and south-central Midwest are expected to be wet. There’s growing concern that corn planting in the southern Midwest and Southeast could be delayed. Both EU and GFS models point to potential flooding rains across parts of AR, MS, TN, KY, southern IL, southern IN, and OH.
Domestic Brazil corn basis remains firm due to higher ethanol production. Dalian corn futures moved higher, while EU corn exports are down 35% year over year. The U.S. and Argentina currently offer the lowest-priced export corn.

Talk of improved U.S. biofuel subsidy policy boosted bean oil and soybean prices yesterday. However, uncertainty surrounding today’s additional tariff announcements has both markets giving back some of those gains this morning. There are also reports that the U.S. may supply soyoil to India at reduced tariffs.
A crop scout estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at 169 MMT and Argentina’s at 48 MMT. Meanwhile, Argentine customs workers announced a two-day strike. U.S. tariffs are viewed as bearish for soybean demand from China.
Over the past 20 days, funds have averaged 2,500 soyoil contracts traded per day, with 15,000 contracts bought on Monday alone. Dalian futures for soybeans, soymeal, palm oil, and soyoil were all higher. EU oilseed imports are up 10% year over year, soymeal up 14%, and vegetable oil imports are down 28%.

EU weather maps forecast rain in Russia. The eastern U.S. Plains may see showers, and heavy rains are possible across U.S. SRW (Soft Red Winter) wheat areas.
EU wheat exports are down 35% year over year. U.S. SRW wheat remains the lowest-priced export option among major origins.
Despite export trends, Matif futures moved higher on talk that France sold 5–6 cargoes of wheat to Morocco — though no sales to Egypt have been confirmed.

Matt Mattke