TFM Morning Update 04-03-2025

CORN

Corn is down this morning after yesterday afternoon, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on all imports with a baseline rate of 10% and higher rates for most other countries. These tariffs were more harsh than expected and are pressuring the grains and equities.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 600k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 1,017k tons. This would compare to 1,040k a week ago and 959k a year ago at this time.
Domestic Brazil corn basis remains firm due to higher ethanol production. Dalian corn futures moved higher, while EU corn exports are down 35% year over year. The U.S. and Argentina currently offer the lowest-priced export corn.

Soybeans are trading sharply lower this morning gapping lower following the tariff announcement in which President Trump said that the US would impose 34% tariffs on all good imported from China, more than analysts expected. There is now a fear of retaliatory tariffs, and both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 200k and 800k tons with an average estimate of 408k tons. This would compare to 317k last week and 137k tons a year ago at this time.
A crop scout estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at 169 MMT and Argentina’s at 48 MMT. Meanwhile, Argentine customs workers announced a two-day strike.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex in overall risk off trade. US weather for HRW wheat is a concern, but tariff news is overshadowing everything else.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between a net sales reduction of 100k tons and sales of 500k tons with an average guess of 250k tons. This would compare to 112k last week and 278k a year ago at this time.
The USDA ag attaché in India sees the 25/26 wheat crop at 115 mmt which would be a third year of record production. Planted acreage is expected to be higher and growing conditions expected to be optimal.

Amanda Brill