TFM Morning Update 04-04-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after a higher close yesterday. Prices are trying to recover from concerns over feed demand related to the avian flu, and an uptick in farmer selling after last week’s friendly report.
US ethanol stocks rose by 1.2% to 26.416m bbl according to the Department of Energy’s ethanol report yesterday, and plant production came in at 1.073m b/d which was above the survey average of 1.046m.
In South America, both Argentina and Brazil are expecting widespread rains which will slow the soybean harvest but will benefit the second crop corn. Northern Argentina may experience some flooding, but Brazil is expected to be warm and wet over the next 10 days.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning along with the rest of the grain complex as it attempts to recover from the 5-day sell off, but May futures have hovered between the 40 and 50-day moving averages. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is slightly lower.
While last Thursday’s report was within trade expectations in both the stocks and acreage, 2 more million acres of soybeans are expected to be planted which is not particularly friendly considering that export demand is already low.
Palm oil has been the driver of higher soybean oil which in turn has supported soybeans, and Malaysian palm oil reserves were seen at an 8-month low on strong exports which shows the strong recent demand for veg oils.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning after a strong showing yesterday which saw Chicago wheat up 11 cents. Part of that strength could come from meteorologists maintaining that weather for world wheat production has not been favorable.
Meteorologist John Barnick has said that the US Southern Plains have been too dry, that parts of western Europe have been too wet, and that the Black Sea region has been too warm and dry, not to mention at war.
Today’s expectations for wheat in the export sales report are low with the trade range between sales reductions of 100k tons and sales of 400k tons. Last week, 339.6k tons were reported as sold.

Amanda Brill