CORN

• Corn futures are trading lower this morning as easing tensions and potential ceasefire discussions between the U.S. and Iran have pressured energy markets. May corn is down 2 cents at $4.50-1/4, while December corn is 2 cents lower at $4.79-1/4.
• Hopes that disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could ease have tempered concerns over input costs, though the broader conflict continues to keep fertilizer and fuel prices elevated. As a result, farmers are reassessing planting strategies, potentially cutting input usage and increasing the risk of lower yields.
• USDA indicated that growers plan to reduce corn plantings to around 95.3 million acres in 2026, down from nearly 99 million last year, as elevated fertilizer costs make corn less competitive relative to soybeans. At the same time, ample supplies continue to weigh on the market, with U.S. corn stocks near 9 billion bushels as of March 1 following strong prior harvests.

SOYBEANS

• Soybean futures are showing modest strength this morning as the market balances optimism around potential U.S.–China trade discussions against easing geopolitical tensions with Iran. May soybeans are up 4 cents at $11.67-1/2, while November soybeans are 2 cents higher at $11.56.
• USDA reported last week that soybean export sales for the 2025/26 marketing year totaled 353,300 metric tons, down 18% from the prior four-week average. The decline reflects continued soft overseas demand, as competitively priced Brazilian supplies dominate global trade.
• Meanwhile, the market remains focused on potential U.S.–China trade talks, with investors watching for any signs of improved demand from China, the world’s largest soybean importer.

WHEAT

• The wheat complex is trading lower across all three classes this morning, with Kansas City wheat leading the losses. May Chicago wheat is down 5-1/2 cents at $5.92-3/4, Kansas City wheat is 8-3/4 cents lower at $6.07, and Minneapolis spring wheat is down 3-3/4 cents at $6.43.
• Last week, USDA reported wheat export sales increased by 0.9 million bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year and 10.0 million bushels for 2026/27. Weekly shipments totaled 12.5 million bushels, falling short of the 17.3 million bushels needed to stay on pace with USDA’s 900 million bushel export target. Total export commitments for 2025/26 have reached 886 million bushels, running 14% ahead of last year.
• Brent crude slipped below $108 per barrel on reports that the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a potential 45-day truce, easing concerns over elevated fuel and fertilizer costs that had been supporting grain prices.

Author

Matthew Lucas