TFM Morning Update 04-08-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning in quiet trade with the May contract still rangebound and hovering right near the 40-day moving average. The spread of bird flu in dairy cattle has traders a bit weary on the possibilities of changing feed demand.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has cut its estimate for corn production by 2 mmt citing disease in parts of the crop caused by bacteria carrying insects. Production is now expected at 52 mmt and the crop is reportedly 11.1% harvested.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of corn by 7,826 contracts which increased their net short position to 259,556 contracts.

Soybeans are mixed this morning with the front months slightly higher and the November contract lower. There is currently negative carry from the front month into new crop, and this is not helped by the prospect of increased planted acreage this year.
Soybean oil has been following the moves in palm oil closely, and it has moved lower over the past three days as prices correct. Soybean meal is higher this morning, but there may be pressure when Argentina gets its harvest further underway.
Friday’s CFTC report said that as of April 2, funds sold 3,476 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 138,256 contracts. Between corn, soybeans, meal, bean oil, and wheat, funds are short 593,000 contracts which is the largest in years.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago wheat slightly lower, but KC and Minneapolis wheat higher. Overall, trade in the grain complex is quiet to begin the week. Chicago wheat has been in a steady uptrend since its March lows as Russian export prices have firmed.
Last week, it was reported that Russia was having problems with poor quality wheat which had importers complaining and caused Russia to halt as many as 500,000 mt of loaded wheat shipments.
On Friday’s CFTC report, funds reportedly bought back 158 contracts of Chicago wheat which reduced their net short position to 91,944 contracts.

Amanda Brill