TFM Morning Update 04-09-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning with the May contract now pressing up against the 100-day moving average. With no fresh tariff news and optimism that agreements can be reached, grains are moving higher.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its first Crop Progress report of the year. It was shown that 2% of the corn crop is planted which was in line from expectations but down 3% from a year ago at this time.
Yesterday, export inspections showed 1,583k tons of corn inspected which compared to 1,647k last week and 1,465k tons the year before. Primary destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.

Soybeans are bull spread again with the front month slightly higher but deferred months lower. Futures were up overnight but fell on the Chinese tariff news. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil is lower.
The Bloomberg survey for Brazilian soybean production has estimated the figure just slightly below CONAB’s last guess at 167.8 mmt compared to CONAB’s 167.37. The range is between 167 and 169 mmt.
Tomorrow, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and estimates show US ending stocks increasing slightly, exports being reduced, but world ending stocks increasing.

Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago slightly lower but KC and Minneapolis higher. Wheat was shaken by the tariff announcement, and equity markets are sharply lower as well.
For tomorrow’s WASDE report, US ending stocks for wheat are expected to increase slightly despite an expected decline in exports. World wheat stocks are expected to increase.
The Crop Progress showed spring wheat at 3% planted which is on par with a year ago. Winter wheat was rated 48% good to excellent which was in line with trade estimates but was down from 55% in late November. 5% on the crop is headed.

Amanda Brill