TFM Morning Update 04-15-2024

CORN

Corn is trading a bit lower this morning but has been rangebound for over a month after recovering from the lows in February. Over the weekend, Iran sent drones to attack Israel, but the drones were repelled. Crude oil and other commodities moved lower as a result.
In the US, planting is starting to pick up, but the 7-day weather forecast is showing rains across the country which will likely delay progress. At any rate, the rains should help areas with lower soil moisture levels.
For the week ending April 9, noncommercials were reportedly sellers of corn, adding 3,998 contracts to their net short position which has now grown to 263,554 contracts.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning and unlike corn, have been in a downward trend since mid-March. Soybeans have posted lower closes on the week, 3 consecutively lower times, as exports remain poor and as trade expects a large crop out of South America. Soybean meal is trading lower while soybean oil is trading lower with lower crude oil.
Last week’s supply and demand report was a touch bearish but didn’t show many changes from last month. Notably, there was no revision lower to Brazilian soybean production estimates which puts nearly a 10 mmt difference between the USDA’s estimate and CONAB’s guess.
Last Friday’s CFTC report showed noncommercials as sellers of soybeans by 1,054 contracts which increased their net short position to 139,310 contracts. The total short position between corn and soybeans is getting closer to where it was in February.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning and are being led down by Chicago wheat. Prices are likely being influenced by lower corn and soybeans along with outside markets which have responded to Israel’s successful defense against Iranian drone attacks.
Kazakhstan has extended its ban on wheat imports for another 6 months from any country. According to officials there, the illegal imports of wheat to Kazakhstan have caused domestic wheat prices to fall by over 50%. As much as 2 mmt of wheat used to be imported illegally into the country each year.
Friday’s CFTC report showed noncommercials as buyers of wheat in the Chicago contract buying 5,376 contracts leaving them net short 86,568 contracts. They were sellers of KC wheat by 4,137 contracts leaving them net short 44,611 contracts.

Amanda Brill