TFM Morning Update 04-17-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after rains moved through large sections of the Corn Belt in the last 24 hours.
Another round of moisture and cooler temperatures into the weekend for much of the western Corn Belt should keep planting progress at a minimum. Temperatures and moisture are forecast to be above normal for all of the Midwest in the last week of April.
Much of central Brazil’s safrinha corn remains in the vegetative and early pollination stages of production. The consistent wet season showers are expected to wrap up in the next few days. Crop stress is likely to appear in Brazilian areas that still have below-normal subsoil moisture.

Soybeans are trading unchanged to a bit lower this morning, after yesterday’s poor price action front month soybean futures may be looking to retest their late February lows near the $11.40 level on the July CBOT chart.
July soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange have rallied 10% from their February low to their recent high and are currently trading the U.S. equivalent of $14.32 per bushel. It was also a good sign to see Q1 GDP in China up 5.3% from a year ago, this was stronger growth than what was expected.
After a system of showers moves through Argentina over the next few days and into the weekend, a drier pattern is expected to set up which will be much welcomed and allow for harvest progress to increase.

Wheat prices are higher across the board this morning as rains continue to move through U.S spring wheat country but look to remain absent over then next week in KC wheat country.
Dry conditions in Ukraine, Russia, and the Western Canadian Prairies along with excessive wetness in western Europe will continue to be monitored by the wheat trade.
Front month KC wheat futures appears to be the only grain holding above the 20 and 50-day moving averages after the recent slide lower in other grains. A close above the pivotal $6 level on July KC wheat would signal a trend change from sideways to higher.

Keegan Madigan