Information produced by ADM Investor Services, Inc. and distributed by Stewart-Peterson Inc.

 

Wheat prices overnight are up 6 1/4 in SRW, up 2 in HRW, up 3 1/4 in HRS; Corn is up 3 3/4; Soybeans up 14 3/4; Soymeal up $0.52; Soyoil up 0.75.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 21 in SRW, up 15 1/4 in HRW, up 18 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 10 1/2; Soybeans up 33; Soymeal up $1.11; Soyoil up 1.68.

For the month to date wheat prices are up 9 in SRW, up 16 3/4 in HRW, down 5 1/2 in HRS; Corn is up 10 1/4; Soybeans up 24 3/4; Soymeal up $6.60; Soyoil down 0.17.

Year-To-Date nearby futures are down 11.3% in SRW, up 0.5% in HRW, down 4.9% in HRS; Corn is up 0.4%; Soybeans up 0.7%; Soymeal down 1.6%; Soyoil down 13.3%.

Chinese Ag futures (JUL 23) Soybeans up 24 yuan; Soymeal up 53; Soyoil up 72; Palm oil up 106; Corn up 2 — Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 148 ringgit (+3.91%) at 3935.

There were changes in registrations (-26 Soybeans). Registration total: 2,463 SRW Wheat contracts; 23 Oats; 22 Corn; 0 Soybeans; 613 Soyoil; 1 Soymeal; 1 HRW Wheat.

Preliminary changes in futures Open Interest as of April 17 were: SRW Wheat down 9,314 contracts, HRW Wheat down 1,436, Corn down 24,086, Soybeans down 4,108, Soymeal up 7,859, Soyoil down 4,480.

Northern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures variable Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, below to well below normal Thursday-Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures below to well below normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday-Wednesday.

Central/Southern Plains Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday-Friday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday-Wednesday, below normal northwest and above normal southeast Thursday, near to below normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Western Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, below normal north and above normal south Wednesday-Thursday, below normal Friday.

Eastern Midwest Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday-Friday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday. Outlook: Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday-Wednesday. Temperatures below to well below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Delta Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday night-Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near normal Friday. Outlook: Mostly dry Saturday-Wednesday. Temperatures below normal Saturday-Wednesday.

Brazil Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Rio Grande do Sul and Parana:  Isolated to scattered showers north Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday-Friday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias:  Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Isolated showers north Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday-Friday.

Argentina Grains & Oilseeds Forecast: Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires:  Isolated showers east Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday. La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires:  Isolated showers Monday, east Tuesday-Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Friday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

The player sheet for 4/17 had funds: net buyers of 8,000 contracts of SRW wheat, buyers of 7,000 corn, buyers of 7,000 soybeans, buyers of 2,000 soymeal, and buyers of 2,500 soyoil.

TENDERS

• VEGETABLE OILS TENDER: Egypt’s state grains buyer, the General Authority for Supply Commodities, said it was seeking vegetable oils in an international purchasing tender for arrival between May 25 and June 15. The deadline for offers is April 19.
• RICE TENDERS: South Korea’s state-backed Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corp. has issued an international tender to purchase an estimated 43,500 tonnes of rice.
• WHEAT TENDER: Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) is seeking to buy a total of 66,377 tonnes of food-quality wheat from the United States and Australia in a regular tender that will close on Thursday.

PENDING TENDERS

• FEED WHEAT TENDER: An importer group in the Philippines has issued a tender to purchase around 150,000 tonnes of animal feed wheat
• MILLING WHEAT TENDER: Jordan’s state grain buyer has issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat which can be sourced from optional origins.
• BARLEY TENDER: Jordan’s state grains buyer has issued an international tender to purchase up to 120,000 tonnes of animal feed barley.

US BASIS/CASH

• Basis bids for corn shipped by barge to the U.S. Gulf Coast for export were steady to lower on Monday, while soybean barge bids were mixed, traders said.
  • Corn barges loaded in April were bid at 81 cents over May futures, which was flat from Friday. Barges loaded in May were 1 cent weaker at 80 cents over futures.
  • April corn export premiums were 2 cents lower at 95 cents over futures. May premiums were also 2 cents lower at 93 cents over futures for loadings in the first half of the month.
  • Traders were monitoring concerns about possible flooding along the Mississippi River, a major shipping waterway for U.S. grain traveling to the Gulf Coast from the Midwest.
  • CIF Gulf April soybean barges were bid 2 cents higher at 82 cents over May. May barges were 3 cents weaker at 82 cents over futures.
  • FOB basis offers for May soybean export loadings were 2 cents lower at 108 cents over May futures. Premiums for early June loadings were unchanged at 130 cents over July.
• Spot basis bids for corn were steady to weak at processors and river terminals around the U.S. Midwest early on Monday, grain dealers said.
  • The corn basis was flat ethanol plants and grain elevators around the interior of the region.
  • Cash bids for soybeans were unchanged at processors and elevators around the interior and steady to weak at river terminals.
  • Farmer sales were slow on Monday morning even though rain and cold weather across broad swaths of the Midwest pushed farmers from their fields.
  • But the planting delays did little to move growers’ attention back to their marketing plans, an Iowa dealer said.
• Spot basis bids for soybeans and corn were steady to weak at U.S. Midwest river terminals on Monday, grain dealers said.
  • The basis at river terminals was under pressure as demand from overseas buyers shifted to South America from the United States.
  • Around the interior of the Midwest, corn bids were mixed at processors in Illinois and flat at grain elevators.
  • Bids for soybeans delivered on the cash market were mixed at interior elevators and unchanged at processors.
  • Farmer sales of both commodities were slow on Monday.
  • But growers were calling in to check on the prices dealers were bidding for their crops as gains in the futures market piqued their interest in marketing, an Ohio dealer said.
• Spot cash U.S. millfeed values were mostly steady on Monday amid uncertainty about demand for the feed ingredient, dealers said.
  • Mills in the Midwest and Plains are expected to run about 5-1/2 to 6 days this week, slightly less than normal, a dealer said.
• Spot basis bids for hard red winter wheat were unchanged at truck and rail market elevators across the southern U.S. Plains on Monday morning, dealers said.
  • Farmer sales were slow, an Oklahoma dealer said.
  • Worries about crop conditions have deterred farmers from booking new sales, dealers said.
• Spot basis offers for U.S. soymeal held steady at most processors in both the rail and truck markets on Monday, dealers said.
  • On the export front, FOB offers for supplies loaded onto ocean-going vessels at the U.S. Gulf were weak.
  • The CIF market for soymeal shipped by barge to export terminals was unchanged.
  • Demand on the spot market was weak, a Minnesota dealer said.
  • Dealers also said that end users were putting off making purchases for futures months as recent weakness in the futures market raised expectations that prices would continue to ease.
  • Although the basis was mostly steady, offers fell by $1 per ton in Lafayette, Indiana.

US Inspected 1.215m Tons of Corn for Export, 526k of Soybean

In week ending April 13, according to the USDA’s weekly inspections report.

• Corn: 1,215k tons vs 839k the previous wk, 1,183k a yr ago
• Wheat: 240k tons vs 389k the previous wk, 446k a yr ago
• Soybeans: 526k tons vs 678k the previous wk, 1,008k a yr ago

US Corn, Soybean, Wheat Inspections by Country: April 13

Following is a summary of USDA inspections for week ending April 13 of corn, soybeans and wheat for export, from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration, known as GIPSA.

• Soybeans for China-bound shipments made up 280k tons of the 526k total inspected
• Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections, and also led in wheat

US Crop Progress and Conditions for April 16: Summary

Following is a summary of US crop progress and conditions for the week ending April 16 as reported by the US Department of Agriculture.

China March Imports

General Administration of Customs says on website.

• March Corn Imports 2.19M Tons, -9.2% Y/y
  • YTD corn imports rose 6% y/y to 7.52m tons
• March wheat imports 1.33m tons, +53.6% y/y
  • YTD wheat imports rose 42.6% y/y to 4.35m tons
• March sugar imports 70,000 tons, -45.6% y/y
  • YTD sugar imports rose 0.9% y/y to 950,000 tons
• March cotton imports 70,000 tons, -64.8% y/y
  • YTD cotton imports fell 51.9% y/y to 300,000 tons
• March edible palm oil imports 390,000 tons, +308.4% y/y
  • YTD edible palm oil imports rose 282% y/y to 1.01m tons
• March barley imports 730,000 tons, +33.3% y/y
  • YTD barley imports fell 1.9% y/y to 1.69m tons
• March sorghum imports 190,000 tons, -81.5% y/y
  • YTD sorghum imports fell 80.2% y/y to 510,000 tons
• March pork imports 150,000 tons, +11.2% y/y
  • YTD pork imports rose 27.7% y/y to 530,000 tons
• March beef imports 210,000 tons, +4.2% y/y
  • YTD beef imports rose 24.2% y/y to 630,000 tons
• March fertilizer exports 2m tons, +24.1% y/y
  • YTD fertilizer exports rose 34.4% y/y to 5.58m tons

NOPA March soybean crush at 185.810 million bushels, second highest ever

The U.S. soybean crush jumped to a 15-month high and the second highest level for any month on record in March, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Monday.

NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans crushed in the United States, processed 185.810 million bushels of soybeans last month, up 12.3% from the 165.414 million bushels processed in February.

It was the largest monthly crush since a record-setting 186.438 million bushels were processed by NOPA members in December 2021, the group’s data showed.

The daily U.S. crush pace accelerated in February and expanded further in March as soy processors recovered from weather- and maintenance-related downtime earlier in the winter, analysts said.

The March 2023 crush topped the average trade estimate of 183.411 million bushels in a Reuters survey of 10 analysts. Estimates ranged from 180.700 million to 188.500 million bushels, with a median of 182.938 million bushels.

Soyoil supplies among NOPA members as of March 31 rose to 1.851 billion pounds, up from the 1.809 billion pounds in NOPA stocks at the end of February.

Soyoil supplies at the end of March had been expected to climb to 1.867 billion pounds, according to the average of estimates gathered from seven analysts. Estimates ranged from 1.800 billion to 1.950 billion pounds, with a median of 1.868 billion pounds.

Brazil wheat crop seen at record, yet below domestic demand -StoneX

Brazilian farmers will harvest a record wheat crop of 11.3 million tonnes in the 2023/2024 season, compared with 11 million tonnes in the previous one, StoneX said on Monday.

In its first forecast for the new crop, StoneX said farmers will expand the planted area by 6.1% to 3.48 million hectare (8.599 million acres), citing “optimism” among wheat producers this year based on the expectation of costs remaining stable and demand strong, though wheat prices have declined.

Brazil still does not produce all of the wheat it needs, with domestic demand seen at 13.2 million tonnes this season, stable from last year, according to StoneX data.

To help meet internal demand, Brazilian wheat imports are seen rising by 9.4%, to 6.15 million tonnes, with Argentina remaining a large supplier, StoneX said.

Yields are likely to drop by 3.2% to 3,246 kilograms per hectare, StoneX predicted, noting the difficulty in keeping them above averages seen in the last harvest.

The southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul will remain the Brazil’s biggest wheat state based on planted area, followed by neighboring Parana.

It will also be the main origin for Brazilian wheat exports in the new season, StoneX said, pegging export demand at 2.13 million tonnes in the 2023/24 cycle.

Soybeans From Top Supplier Trade at Biggest Discount Since 2004

• Brazil’s record crop is flooding the market with supplies
• Chinese, US buyers are snapping up South American shipments

Soybean shipments from Brazil, the world’s top producer and exporter, are trading at their biggest discount in almost 20 years thanks to a record crop that’s flooding the market with supplies.

The discount for soybeans loading at the Brazilian port of Paranagua is at $1.40 a bushel, compared with benchmark Chicago futures, according to data from researcher Cepea. It’s rare to see the cargoes trade at cheaper levels than US soy, and the inversion has even prompted some buyers in the US, the No. 2 producer, to import from the South American country. The move could also help to ease global food inflation and make it cheaper to feed livestock.

Brazil’s harvest has gotten so large that farmers are selling as much as they can for immediate shipment because they don’t have enough storage bins to keep extra beans. Global buyers are taking advantage of the discount. In addition to demand from the US, China is aggressively buying to rebuild reserves, according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX.

Ukraine Says Crop Ship Inspections Haven’t Resumed Tuesday

Ukrainian infrastructure ministry comments on inspections through the Black Sea grain corridor, disputing an earlier report citing Russia.

Russia is still rejecting inspection plans, and seeking to enforce its own schedule, ministry says

USDA attache sees Argentina 2022/23 soy crop at 23.9 mln T

Following are selected highlights from a report issued on Friday, April 14, by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) post in Buenos Aires:

“Post lowers its 2022/2023 estimate for Argentine soybean production to 23.9 million metric tons (MMT). This production estimate is the lowest in 24 years and the yield estimate is the lowest in almost 50 years. As a result of the drought, Post estimates that Argentina will need to import a record 11 MMT of soybeans to achieve a crush of 29.5 MMT. This reduced crush would lead Argentina to export only 18.75 MMT of soybean meal, potentially losing its position as the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal. Soybean oil exports are estimated at 3.65 MMT. Sunflower seed production is estimated unchanged at 4 MMT and peanut production is lowered to 970,000 MT due to the effects of drought. For MY 2023/2024, Post projects a recovery in soybean and peanut production at 50.5 MMT and 1.32 MMT, respectively, on higher planted acreage and a return to normal weather conditions. Sunflower seed production is projected down 3.8 MMT on lower planted area.”

Argentina Grains Inspectors Strike Halts Shipments at Rosario Ports

Argentina grains inspectors have launched a 24-hour strike that is halting shipments at key river ports in farm transport hub Rosario, the ports chamber CAPyM said on Monday.

The strike by the Urgara grains inspectors union is linked to conflicts over a port in the city of Buenos Aires and what it says are high taxes applied to workers’ salaries.

The strike “is affecting absolutely all the ports (in Rosario). They are all stopped as a result of the Urgara strike,” Guillermo Wade, head of CAPyM, told Reuters, adding that the measure was preventing ships being loaded.

Argentina is the world’s top exporter of soybean oil and meal, the third largest in corn, and a key supplier of wheat.

Argentina Crop Ports Impacted by Union Strikes: Nabsa

Strikes on Monday by port and maritime workers including skippers, personnel who berth vessels and grain inspectors are impacting operations at Argentina’s crop export hubs on the Parana River and Atlantic coast, the Nabsa shipping agency said in a note to clients.

Cargill Warns of Opaque Wheat Prices as Firms End Russia Exports

• Top Cargill trader sees more vague price discovery with shift
• US firm is among western crop traders pulling back from Russia

Russia’s increased control of its wheat exports threatens to obscure prices and curb efficiency in the global grains market, according to Cargill Inc.’s head trader.

Russia’s grip on its wheat is tightening after three of the biggest global traders — Cargill, Viterra and Louis Dreyfus Co. — said they will stop buying grain for export, leaving Russian grain supplies largely in the hands of domestic and government-funded companies.

“The price discovery is going to be way more opaque,” Alex Sanfeliu, Cargill’s world trading head, said in an interview Monday. Russian wheat tends to be the price setter “so that puts an additional difficulty for all the wheat traders across the globe,” he said.

WHEAT/CEPEA: Wheat sowing begins in BR; domestic prices continue to fade

Some farmers in northern Paraná have begun sowing the new wheat crop. The area allocated to wheat is expected to be larger this season, which may favor the domestic supply and exports.

Data released this week by Seab/Deral show that less then 1% of the area (1.36 million hectares this year) has been sown in PR State.

So far, agents from mills have reported stocks, while sellers are trying to sell off the inventories from last season in the spot market. Farmers are also monitoring the harvesting of the summer crop, making cash flow, majorly from soybean and corn sales.

As for prices, the dollar depreciation against the Real – by 2.8% in the last seven days, to BRL 4.918 on Friday, 14 – reduced the import and export parities, pressing down quotations in the Brazilian spot market. Cepea surveys show that, between April 6-14, the prices paid to wheat farmers dropped a steep 5.22% in PR and 1.72% in Santa Catarina but remained stable in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values decreased 1.2% in PR, 0.78% in SC, 0.77% in São Paulo and 0.51% in RS.

IMPORTS AND EXPORTS – In March, Brazil imported 428.4 thousand tons of wheat, 46.9% more than that imported in Feb/23 but 18.8% less than that from Mar/22. In the last 12 months, imports totaled 5.35 million tons. Argentina is still the top wheat supplier to Brazil, having sent 69.45% of all the volume imported last month, followed by Uruguay, Russia and Paraguay.

As for exports, Brazil shipped 646.6 thousand tons of wheat in March, 20.4% more than that exported in Feb/23 but 19.3% less than that from Mar/22. In 12 months (Apr/22 – Mar/23), Brazil exported 2.6 million tons of wheat.

Pakistan Cuts FY23 Wheat Target by 1.6m Tons to 26.8m Tons

Pakistan has revised its wheat production target to 26.8 million tons from 28.4 million tons earlier for year ending June, Pakistan’s Ministry of National Food Security & Research says in statement.

• The new target estimates a growth of 1.6% from previous year
• Federal Committee on Agriculture also set production target for rice at 9 million tons and 78.6 million tons for sugarcane in the upcoming season called Kharif
• NOTE: Farmers sow crops in April-June for Kharif season and harvest in October-December
• Slightly above normal rains are expected during April-June and lesser rains in June, statement says citing meteorological department

Indonesia’s March Palm Oil Exports Fall by 2% M/m: Intertek

Exports fell to 1.96 million tons in March from 2 million tons in previous month, according to cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services in an emailed statement.

• March vs Feb. shipment by grade:
  • Crude palm oil at 92,200 tons vs 101,792 tons
  • RBD palm olein at 702,954 tons vs 900,360 tons
  • RBD palm oil at 432,974 tons vs 372,310 tons
• March vs Feb. sales by destination:
  • India and subcontinent at 333,084 tons vs 378,883 tons
  • China at 351,243 tons vs 442,850 tons
  • European Union at 506,169 tons vs 383,426 tons

China’s 1Q Pork Output Climbs to Highest in at Least Five Years

China’s 1Q pork output rose 1.9% y/y to 15.9 million tons, the highest level in at least five years, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Tuesday.

• Production has rebounded after being impacted by African swine fever and a reduction in demand due to Covid
• China’s 1Q pig inventory +2% y/y to 430.94 million
• Volume of slaughtered hogs +1.7% y/y to ~199 million head
• Total meat output including pork, beef, mutton and poultry, +2.5% y/y to 24.56 million tons

Fertilizer Prices Rise as Spring Demand Stretches Supply

A spike in spring fieldwork and near-term demand caused fertilizer supplies to tighten at New Orleans and inland, contributing to higher prices for urea, phosphates and potash. Urea futures at New Orleans price a short-term, demand-fueled price increase as US farmers rush to fertilize all at once.

Urea, Phosphate, Potash Prices Strengthen on Tight Supply

Strong spring demand and tightening supply pushed New Orleans (NOLA) and inland prices higher for urea, phosphates and potash. NOLA urea jumped to $350-$387 a short ton (st) from last week’s $318-$355, with the high confirmed late in the week for prompt, loaded barges. Diammonium phosphate (DAP) barges at NOLA rose to $620-$660/st vs. $610-$620 last week, with NOLA monoammonium phosphate (MAP) climbing $15-$20. Potash barges were impossible to find, leaving the price unchanged at NOLA but up $10-$30/st at inland warehouses. Corn Belt urea jumped $30-$35/st vs. last week, with DAP up $10-$30.

Ammonia prices were unchanged in the US, but strong demand and limited truck availability contributed to spotty supply outages in the Corn Belt. International ammonia prices were up slightly in Europe but down in the Middle East.

UNITED STATES

 

 

 

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