TFM Morning Update 04-18-2024

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning and is now at the very low end of the trading range that has been established over the past month. July futures are now technically oversold.
This morning, rains are falling over nearly the entire state of Iowa and have moved across other parts of the Corn Belt. While this is likely delaying planting a bit, the benefits to soil moisture are outweighing those delays.
US ethanol stocks have fallen by 0.5% to 26.08 M Bbl compared to expectations of 26.146. Plant production was seen at 0.983m barrels per day which compares to the survey average of 1.035m.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning and are now just 17 cents away from the low in late February when looking at the July contract. Poor export demand has been an issue as Brazil maintains the competitive edge and nears harvest completion.
On the bullish side, US soybeans are much more competitive with Brazilian offers than they were a year ago. This could mean that the export window in the US could open sooner than it did last year.
Expectations for today’s export sales report are between 300k and 1,100k tons with an average guess of 738k tons. This is a wide range, but the report will factor in two flash sales to unknown destinations from last week.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning after a fairly large selloff yesterday. KC wheat is preforming the worst as winter wheat areas may be expecting rains this week which could improve crop conditions.
Monday’s crop progress report showed that winter wheat conditions had fallen by 1% to 55% good to excellent. Spring wheat planting is called at 7% complete which is 5 points higher than last year at this time and 1 point above the 5-year average. Idaho and South Dakota are ahead of pace for this time of year.
Estimates for today’s export sales report for wheat are between 50k and 600k tons with an average guess of 348k tons.

Amanda Brill