TFM Morning Update 04-19-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after four consecutive days of losses that brought July corn below the lower end of its recent trading range. Israel reportedly retaliated against Iran overnight which could account for the support.
In Argentina, the corn crop is reportedly shrinking due to an invasion of “leaf hopper” insects that carry a disease that damages corn. It is estimated that $1.3 billion has been lost from the value of the 23/24 crop due to this disease.
In the US, planting work is underway and although recent rains have delayed some operations, today is forecast to be relatively dry.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with corn and wheat, but are dangerously close to the contract low and are trading only 11 cents above it. Soybean meal is trading higher this morning while soybean oil has followed crude oil lower.
Last night, Israel reportedly sent a drone attack to Iran’s Isfahan air base and nuclear site. This initial news caused crude oil to rally, but the lack of damage done brought prices quickly back down. However, Iran has promised to escalate things if Israel retaliated, so the conflict is likely far from over.
In the past three weeks, the Brazilian real has fallen by 4.6% which cheapens soybean purchases from Brazil. As a result, May soybean futures in the US have fallen by 54 cents in the same time frame which is a decline of 4.5%.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning but are off their overnight highs that were a result of the Israeli attack on Iran. Chicago wheat is leading the way higher while KC wheat is only slightly higher.
In the US, the southwestern region has been too dry which could impact winter wheat. The Black Sea region is also reportedly too dry, and Europe has received too much rain. These weather events could cause a decline in world ending stocks.
Yesterday’s export sales reports were poor again with net cancellations of 3.4 mb reported for the 23/24 year, but new crop sales of 8.2 mb were better than expected.

Amanda Brill