TFM Morning Update 04-22-2025

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower to start the day, but futures are maintaining their apparent bull flag pennant formation which could see a break to the upside. Yesterday’s weakness was due to a general risk-off day in outside markets and a drop in equity markets.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which saw corn plantings ahead of trade estimates. 12% of the crop is now planted which compares to the trade estimate of 10% and 4% a week ago. 2% of the crop is emerged which compares to the 5-year average of 2%.
Yesterday’s export inspections report was good for corn with 1,703k tons inspected which compares to 1,830k the previous week and 1,661k tons a year ago. Top destinations were Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.

Soybeans are trading higher to start the day but again have not been able to significantly break above the 200-day moving average. July futures have taken back all of yesterday’s losses at this point. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw that 8% of the soybean crop has been planted which compares to the average trade guess of 7% and 2% a week ago. Last year at this time, the crop was 7% planted, and the 5-year average pace is 5%.
Yesterday’s export inspections were decent for soybeans at 551k tons which compared to 555k the previous week and 444k tons at this time a year ago. Top destinations were Egypt, Mexico, and China.

Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago slightly lower but KC and Minneapolis trading higher. Futures sold off sharply yesterday along with the other grains and equity markets. Winter wheat crop ratings have fallen since last week.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw spring wheat at 17% planted which compared to the trade guess of 13%, 7% a week ago, and the 5-year average of 12%. 2% is emerged which is on par with the average pace. Winter wheat crop conditions fell two points to 45% good to excellent, and 15% of the crop is headed.
Yesterday’s export inspections were good for wheat at 510k tons which compared to 611k last week and 450k tons a year ago at this time. Top destinations were to Vietnam, Mexico, and the Philippines.

Amanda Brill