CORN
- Dalian corn futures climbed on reports of drier weather in Northeast China, while rains across the Southern and Eastern U.S. could slow planting progress.
- USDA reports 12% of U.S. corn is planted, slightly ahead of the 10% average. Favorable spring weather could lead to a similar acreage increase as last year’s 1.4 million added acres from March to June—potentially pressuring December corn prices.
- EU corn imports are up 12% year-over-year at 16.8 MMT, while exports have fallen 46%. Meanwhile, one crop scout raised Brazil’s corn crop estimate to 127 MMT, up from 119 MMT last year.
SOYBEANS
- Managed funds are holding record short positions in soymeal futures, even as China’s Dalian futures for soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, and palm oil all traded higher overnight.
- USDA reports U.S. soybean planting at 8%, ahead of the 5% average. Some analysts think favorable corn weather could pull more acres away from soybeans, potentially trimming final soybean acreage.
- Support for July soybeans is coming from two angles: optimism that Trump’s final China tariffs may be softer than the previously floated 145%, and ongoing Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans.
WHEAT
- Rainfall in the U.S. South and East could stress the soft red winter (SRW) wheat crop, while EU models show potential rains for the dry U.S. Plains. Russia’s forecast calls for only scattered light showers.
- EU wheat exports are down 34% from last year, and Russia’s wheat exports may land closer to 37 MMT—well below the USDA’s 44 MMT estimate and last year’s 55.5 MMT.
- USDA’s early 2024/25 wheat ending stocks show mixed changes: higher hard red winter (HRW) at 382M bu (vs. 274M ly), flat-to-lower SRW, white, and durum. Combined, total stocks are projected at 846M bu vs. 696M last year.
Author
Matt Mattke