TFM Morning Update 04-25-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher in the front months but unchanged for new crop. July futures have been unable to break above the recent high posted during report day on the 28th, but have managed to close above the 50-day moving average over the past three consecutive days.
Yesterday’s ethanol production report came in below expectations for the second week in a row as ethanol margins have been narrow and gasoline demand has been lower than it was a year ago. The EPA mandating E-15 over the summer should be beneficial to demand.
For today’s export sales report, trade guesses are in a range between 475k tons and 1,150k tons with an average guess of 758k tons. If sales came out near the average of 750k tons, they would be higher than a week ago and higher than the previous year.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning as they correct from a very strong three-day rally that saw July futures gaining over 30 cents. Prices began to falter at the 40 and 50-day moving averages yesterday as they seem to be acting as resistance. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil is slightly lower.
Brazilian soybean exports are seen reaching 13.48 million tons for the month of April which compares to a forecast of 13.74 million tons the previous week. The strengthening of their currency, the real, makes importing Brazilian beans more expensive and could cause exports to slow slightly.
Today’s export sales for soybeans is not expected to be very strong with the trade range between 350k and 900k tons with an average guess of 638k. There have been no flash sales reported last week or this week in soybeans.

All three classes of wheat are trading higher this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way higher. The rally in wheat has likely driven the higher prices in corn and soybeans, and July wheat is now trading above the 100-day moving average, is near the 200-day, and is at the highest levels since the beginning of the year.
Over the weekend, Russia escalated attacks on Ukrainian port facilities while Ukraine hit Russian oil refineries. Typically in the past, traders would sell off rallies that stemmed from activity in the Black Sea, but this in combination with a lower forecast for Russian wheat production seems to have caused to begin short covering in earnest.
Estimates for today’s export sales report in wheat are between 0 and 500k tons with an average guess of 248k tons. Last week, 129k were reported, and this compares with 358k tons reported sold last year at this time.

Amanda Brill