TFM Morning Update 04-26-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning as funds who were previously exiting commodities may now see the oversold technicals as a buying opportunity.
Brazilian corn exports are now seen at 166,552 tons in April vs 186,552 estimated tons. Brazil still has corn to sell but may begin running low.
China plans to grow 88% of their own grain by 2032 which will mainly affect corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice.
Below normal temperatures in the Midwest have caused some early morning freezes the past few days which could damage emerging corn.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher while both soybean meal and oil are lower. The fundamental picture is not friendly short term with Brazil’s harvest, so today’s bounce is likely technical with soybeans oversold.
Traders will continue to watch the Brazilian export values vs those of the US, and as long as Brazil remains so much cheaper it will be difficult for futures to gain momentum.
The USDA attaché now sees the Brazilian 23/24 soy crop at a whopping 159 mmt as their planted acres are planned to expand.
As US exports lag, Brazilian soy exports are seen reaching 14.1 million tons in April vs the 15.15 million tons expected in previous estimates.

Chicago and KC wheat are trading slightly higher while Minn is a bit lower. Not much has changed in the fundamental picture, but the grain complex has a friendlier feel today with the sharp decline in the US dollar.
Poland has signaled that they will not lift the Ukrainian import ban in June. The ban came after the influx of Ukrainian grains drove down local prices in Poland, hurting their producers.
Canadian wheat farmers have asked their country to step in to end the strike in the country. The public sector started a massive strike which is threatening shipments of grain.
On Monday, the International Grains Council estimated that world wheat production will drop from 803 mmt in 22/23 to 787 mmt in 23/24, and will be short of demand by 7 mmt.

Amanda Brill