TFM Morning Update 04-26-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning, but the pattern over the past two days has been lower prices in the overnight trade before moving higher into the end of the day. July corn is on track for a weekly gain of about 9 cents right now, but could face resistance at the 100-day moving average at $4.62 eventually.
Yesterday’s export sales in corn were strong at 51.1 million bushels which was above the higher range of expectations. Primary destinations were to Mexico, South Korea, and Japan. Export shipments of 66.9 mb were a marketing year high.
In Argentina, the 23/24 corn harvest is now called at 19.8% complete which compares to 17.2% the previous week. Prices may have found some support with leaf hopper insects transmitting a disease among the Argentinian crop that will cause yields to drop.

Soybeans are trading lower this morning but are still on track for a higher weekly close. July soybeans were rebuffed by the 40 and 50-day moving averages over the past two days which have acted as resistance, and yesterday’s poor export sales were not supportive. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is slightly higher.
Yesterday, the US Drought Monitor showed a smaller area of drought than the previous week, and there should be more improvement next week with all of the rains this week. Monday’s crop progress report will reveal if planting was significantly delayed due to this.
Barge shipments on the Mississippi River fell to 463k tons from 500k the week before according to the USDA. Barge rates declined as well, and soybean shipments increased by 10.2% from the previous week.

All three wheat classes are slightly lower this morning but are on track for very large weekly gains. July wheat is currently up over 50 cents on the week, and prices are the highest they have been since July.
Wheat has had the most bullish news between it, corn, and soybeans which has caused the large amount of short covering. Weather in the US, parts of Europe, and the Black Sea region has been concerning and largely too dry. Increased fighting between Ukraine and Russia has caused the higher prices as well.
The EU has cut its wheat forecast for 24/25 slightly at 120.2 mmt which is down from 120.8 mmt in last month’s estimate. Wheat exports are seen at 31 mmt with ending stockpiles of 12.2 mmt.

Amanda Brill