TFM Morning Update 04-27-2023

CORN

Corn continues its downward trajectory and July futures are nearing their March low at 5.97 which could act as support. Pas that level is an unfilled gap from last July at 5.95-1/2 which may need to be filled.
There are chances for rain in the northwest part of the Corn Belt today and tomorrow, but Iowa and Illinois are dry with below-normal precipitation in the 8 to 14-day forecast.
The US had a good string of sales to China over the past few weeks but that one cancellation earlier this week put a negative tone on the market with traders fearing that there are more to come.
The spike in fieldwork as planting begins has increased demand for fertilizer, therefore, limiting supply and increasing prices.

Soybeans are lower for what would be the seventh consecutive day if this holds, and soybean meal has been a factor in dragging soybeans lower while soybean oil has struggled with a sharp decline in crude oil.
Cargill is now planning to expand their soybean processing, biofuel output, and storage and export capacity in Brazil. As Brazil’s soy production grows each year, they will become a bigger player in the exports of soy products.
Palm oil has been a big driver of soybean oil, and Indonesia announced that they will tighten their palm oil export ratio after the Ramadan holiday which could be friendly to bean oil futures.
The USDA attaché in Brazil sees their 23/24 crop rising to 159 mmt, as the planted area is forecast to increase by 3.9%. Crushing is expected to ride by 5% to 55.8 m tons.

Wheat is lower again with KC once again leading the way down. July Chicago wheat has fallen to its lowest level since July of 2021 as funds continue to short this market.
Canada is expected to plant 27 million acres of wheat which would be a 6.2% increase from last year, with canola acres expected at 21.6 million.
Soft wheat exports in the EU have risen 9.7% year over year at 25 m tons which compares with 22.8 m tons the previous year.
The USDA attaché is forecasting the Australian wheat crop for 23/24 wheat at 29 mmt, a strong but nowhere near record-breaking number.

Amanda Brill