TFM Morning Update 04-28-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower again on the momentum from yesterday’s 9.1 mb of sales cancellation to China. This week’s total cancellations are now at 25 mb.
Open interest in corn has fallen by 112,000 contracts over the last 7 sessions indicating massive long liquidation. Today’s CFTC data will show how much non-commercials have sold.
The Biden administration has issued an emergency waiver that will allow widespread sales of higher ethanol E15 gasoline this summer to combat high pump prices.
The Midwest has received early morning freezes in some areas that may damage emergent corn.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning with support from soybean meal and oil. Soybeans have had 7 consecutively lower closes but today could end that streak.
The CME reported 199 deliveries of May soybean oil, but there were no deliveries for soybeans or soybean meal.
Barge shipments on the Mississippi declined to 657k tons from 756k the previous week, and soybean shipments were down 34% week over week.
Soybeans have not seen sales cancellations like those in corn, and that could make a bullish case for soybeans despite Brazil’s new supplies on the market.

Wheat contracts are trading slightly higher after a very sharp selloff yesterday caused by improving US weather and heavy fund selling.
The EU’s soft wheat production in the 23/24 season is now seen at 130.2 million tons versus the March estimate of 130.9 million tons.
India has ramped up their wheat purchases with more already bought in the current marketing year than the total purchases made in the previous year.
The CME reported 854 deliveries for May Chicago wheat, none for KC wheat, and 104 deliveries of Minneapolis wheat.

Amanda Brill