TFM Morning Update 04-30-2024

CORN

Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning with first notice day here for May grains. There were zero deliveries against the May contract which suggests an unwillingness to sell at these levels and is friendly.
Yesterday evening, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed corn plantings at 27% complete which was right on the nose with trade estimates, compares to 12% last year, and the 5-year average of 22%. 7% of the corn crop is emerged which compares to 3% last week and 5% a year ago.
Yesterday’s export inspection report showed that 48.3 million bushels of corn were inspected which was above the 47.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. It is possible that exports will be increased in next month’s WASDE report.

Soybeans are mixed this morning with the May contract trading slightly higher and the deferred months trading a bit lower. July soybeans are still hovering right at the 40-day moving average and are in a consolidating pattern. 533 contracts of soybeans were delivered against the May contract. Soybean meal is trading higher again after yesterday’s rally while soybean oil is lower.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that 18% of the soybean crop has been planted which was slightly above the average trade guess of 17%. This compares to 8% last week and the 5-year average of 10% for this time of year.
In Argentina, heavy rains are falling in key growing areas which is keeping farmers out of the fields and could potentially damage the soybean yields. Soybean meal is very sensitive to potential changes in Argentinian production.

All three classes of wheat are trading lower this morning with Chicago leading the way lower. Wheat is already over 30 cents off its high from Friday as any rallies in the grain complex quickly get sold. There were deliveries of 1,151 contracts against May Chicago wheat but none against KC or Minn wheat.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that 49% of the crop is rated good to excellent which is down 1 point from last week but is still above last year’s rating of 28%. 34% of spring wheat is planted which compares to 15% last week, and 5% of spring wheat is emerged which compares to 2% last week.
In Russia, drought conditions are expected throughout next month which analysts are saying could lower the country’s total production. Support in wheat prices is likely coming from this as Russia is providing most of the world with its wheat.

Amanda Brill