TFM Morning Update 05-01-2024

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower this morning. Moisture looks to be abundant across the Midwest for the first seven days of May. Higher rainfall amounts are expected in the western Corn Belt states of Iowa and Missouri.
Late yesterday afternoon the Biden administration announced the updated GREET rules for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). To qualify for the SAF subsidies, fuel made from corn or soybeans must demonstrate it has a 50% lower carbon footprint than petroleum-based jet fuel.
The Safrinha corn crop in Brazil will have a warm and dry end to the growing season as the current weather pattern for central Brazil appears to remain in place for at least the next 10 days.

Soybeans are lower this morning after yesterday’s tumble in prices. Delivery notices were large for May soybean oil futures on first notice day yesterday. This led to a drop in front month soybean oil futures to their lowest level since early 2021.
Last week’s U.S. drought monitor showed just 21% of soybean producing areas were covered in some form of drought, this is down significantly from six months ago when soybean areas were 52% covered. With an active weather pattern predicted into mid-May, this coverage will likely drop in the coming weeks.
Heavy rains in Argentina and far southern Brazil are limiting harvest progress. Harvest in Argentina was just 25% complete as of the latest update, this compares to the five-year average of 48% complete for this same week.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago slightly higher while KC and spring wheat futures are slightly lower.
Hard Red Spring deliverable wheat stocks at Duluth have seen a significant drop recently. To end the month of April they were at their lowest level since the 2008/09 marketing year for this week.
Russian FOB wheat values continue to be the benchmark for the world, prices have moved slightly higher in recent weeks but remain the cheapest in the world offered near $212 per metric ton.

Keegan Madigan