TFM Morning Update 05-01-2025

CORN

Corn futures are trading higher to start the day with July futures gravitating back to their 100-day moving average. Yesterday’s ethanol report was supportive, and good demand has been a bullish factor in general. There have been 50 deliveries against May corn so far.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 700k and 1,500k tons with an average guess of 1,000k. This would compare to 1,153k a week ago and 792k tons a year ago.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange released their weekly crop report which showed the country 31.3% complete with the corn harvest. Production estimates for 24/25 were unchanged at 49.0 mmt.

Soybeans are trading lower for the third consecutive morning but appear to have found some support at the 100-day moving average. Crude oil prices have continued to fall pressuring soybean oil. There have only been 6 deliveries against May soybeans so far.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 150k and 550k tons with an average guess of 295k. This would compare to 277k last week and 421k tons a year ago.
Weaker crude oil prices have begun to pressure soybean oil futures this week, eroding some of the recent strength driven by speculation over a favorable biofuel subsidy and increased demand following tariffs on China’s used cooking oil exports.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC wheat trading higher while Minneapolis is slightly lower. Wheat has been struggling between declining winter wheat crop ratings and the quick planting pace of spring wheat.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 0 and 400k tons with an average guess of 233k tons. This would compare to 227k last week and 387k a year ago.
Heavy rainfall is expected across the central and southern U.S. over the next 10 days, with parts of Oklahoma and Texas at risk of flooding that could potentially damage the winter wheat crop.

Amanda Brill