TFM Morning Update 05-02-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning with the July contract now just 4 cents off the high made on March 28 following the grain stocks report. The delays in planting progress are likely adding to support as rains continue to fall in the Corn Belt.
The first week of May is typically when the most planting progress is completed, but if conditions remain wet, the work will likely slow. The 8 to 14-day forecast shows above normal precipitation in the Corn Belt.
Yesterday’s ethanol production report showed an increase in production to 987k barrels per day and is up 4.1% from a year ago at this time. 468.8 mb of corn were used for ethanol in March which is up 7.5% from a year ago.

Soybeans are trading higher for the second consecutive day after reversing off of yesterday’s lows and ending higher which was technically bullish. July soybeans are trading right at the 50-day moving average, and both soybean meal and oil are trading higher.
Yesterday, the USDA released its monthly oilseed report which showed 204 mb of soybeans crushed in March. This was 2.9% higher than this time last year.
There are beginning to be concerns over the progress of the Argentinian soybean harvest which is being delayed by rains and could impact yields. In Brazil, soybean basis levels are rising as well which is supporting futures.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning and are being led by KC wheat which Chicago’s gains are not far behind. World weather in wheat growing regions has been a main factor behind the higher prices recently.
Forecasts for Russia and the Black Sea region initially showed better rain chances over the next week, but are drying up as time passes. In the US, Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma are also in need of rains for the winter wheat crop.
Egypt reportedly expects to import up to 5.7 mmt of wheat in the 24/25 marketing year and has bought 1.1 mmt domestically since April. Their current wheat stockpiles should last 3 months.

Amanda Brill