TFM Morning Update 05-02-2025

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning with support from yesterday’s export sales report that saw new sales of 39.9 million bushels which put total commitments at 90.7% of the export estimate with 18 weeks left in the marketing year.
Yesterday, the USDA released the monthly grain crushings report which saw the total ethanol grind at 454.2 mb in March which was 2.8% lower than March the previous year.
Mexico is now set to become the top importer of US ag exports according to CoBank. Last year, ag exports to Mexico rose to 31.4 billion dollars, and Canada has begun to shun US goods as retaliation towards the tariffs.

Soybeans are higher to start the day but have still not broken out of their trading range which has hovered around the 200-day moving average since April 14. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil has followed crude oil lower.
Yesterday’s export sales were ok for soybeans at 478k tons which compared to 277k tons the previous week. Top destinations were to China, Mexico, and Germany.
The USDA’s monthly oilseed report saw soybean crushings at 206.6 million bushels in March which was 1.5% higher than the same time frame a year ago. Crude oil production was 2.9% higher than last year while crude and oil stocks were down 12.2% year over year.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning and seem to be leading the way for corn and soybeans. Funds may finally be starting to unwind their very large net short position with prices oversold and too cheap compared to corn.
Yesterday’s export sales were ok for wheat at 310k tons which compared to 227k tons last week. The top buyers were Nigeria, Colombia, and Thailand.
The USDA attaché for Canada sees wheat production in the country increasing by 2% in 25/26 citing an increase in planted area for wheat, corn, and oats, and a decrease in planted acreage for barley.

Amanda Brill