TFM Morning Update 05-05-2023

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning and has recovered from yesterday morning’s export sales net cancellations which drove prices lower.
Non-commercials were net short corn as of last Friday’s CFTC report but with corn technically oversold and the Black Sea grain deal potentially not getting renewed, it is finding some support.
Global corn stockpiles at the end of the 22/23 season have been raised and are at 288.2 mmt which is up from an April estimate of 285.4 mmt thanks to a bigger India harvest.
China imported its first cargo of corn from South Africa this week of 53,000 tonnes as they seek to diversify their purchasing markets.

Soybeans are higher again today along with both soybean meal and oil as crude oil begins to move higher back above 70 dollars a barrel.
Palm oil has finally made a reversal gaining 5% due to an expected drop in palm oil stocks and increased demand. Soybeans and soybean oil have been looking to world veg oil prices for direction.
Brazil’s lack of storage for their record crop are pressuring premiums in both corn and beans, and the negative premiums may result in losses of 2.30 billion dollars this year for the sector.
Barge shipments down the Mississippi River have fallen to 595k tons for the week ending April 29 from 657k tons the previous week as high water levels remain an issue.

Wheat is trading higher for what would be the third consecutive day as poor US crop conditions, an attempted drone attack on Russia, and the potential non-renewal of the Black Sea grain deal bolster prices.
The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 52,225 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Friday.
The FAO raised the EU’s wheat crop outlook to 139.5 mmt for 2023, but they cut the outlook for Turkey and Pakistan’s crops due to drought.
An estimate for Oklahoma wheat production was cited at 54 mb earlier this week, far less than the 68.6 mb last year and the 115.1 mb produced the year before.

Amanda Brill