TFM Morning Update 05-07-2024

CORN

Corn is trading a bit lower this morning but remains well above its 100-day moving average for the first time since the July rally of last year. There may be some selling pressure ahead of the USDA report on Friday.
Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report showed that 36% of the corn crop is planted which is below the trade estimate of 39%. This compares to 27% last week and now puts progress below the 5-year average of 39%. 12% of the crop is emerged which is ahead of the average of 9%. Another week of delays due to rain could be an issue.
Corn is South America is struggling with hot and dry conditions in Brazil and the leaf hopper insects wreaking havoc is Argentina. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has lowered its estimate of corn production to 45.5 mmt. The USDA’s last estimate was 55 mmt.

Soybeans are correcting slightly from yesterday’s big gains of over 33 cents in the July contract that were driven by planting delays and flooding in southern Brazil and parts of Argentina. Soybeans have joined wheat and are trading well above their 100-day moving average.
Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that the soybean crop is 25% planted which is below the trade estimate of 28% and compares with 18% last week. Soybeans are still above the 5-year average of 21% but could slip if progress is stalled again this week. 9% of the crop has emerged.
The flooding in Rio Grande do Sul has been a large impact on this rally and specifically has benefitted soybean meal as Brazil typically exports a portion of its bean crop to Argentina to be crushed. The flooding comes after a season that suffered through drought conditions as well further impacting yields in those areas.

All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain market as prices correct from big gains yesterday. KC wheat is leading the complex lower this morning.
Yesterday’s crop progress showed an improvement in winter wheat conditions by 1 point to 50% good to excellent. This was a point above the average trade guess and is well above the dismal 29% rating a year ago. 43% of the crop is headed which compares to 30% a week ago and the 5-year average of 32%.
Crop progress for spring wheat showed that 47% has been planted which is above the trade estimate of 45% and above the 5-year average of 31% as spring wheat areas have dealt with less rain. 12% of the crop is reportedly emerged which compares to 5% last week and the 5-year average of 9%.

Amanda Brill