TFM Morning Update 05-08-2025

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower to start the day after a large bearish reversal yesterday that followed talks of the US and China meeting to discuss a trade deal. Later in the day, it was likely that traders felt doubt a deal would be struck and began selling.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 900k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 1,133k tons. This would compare to 1,259k last week and 938k a year ago at this time.
EU corn imports are up 10% year over year, while exports are down 46%. U.S. weather remains mixed — dry in the north and wet across the Delta and Southeast.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning, but are still within their trading range that was formed on April 11. It may take a weather event to break prices out. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 600k tons with an average guess of 450k tons. This would compare to 478k last week and 434k the prior year.
In Monday’s USDA report, the trade expects the 2024/25 U.S. soybean carryout near 369 million bushels vs USDA’s 374, and 2025/26 at 362 million. The expected 2025 U.S. soybean crop is projected at 4.338 billion bushels, slightly below last year’s 4.366 billion.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning, and July Chicago wheat has slowly been trending higher after making a new contract low on April 30. US soft wheat is now the cheapest in the world.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 0 and 500k tons with an average guess of 317k tons. This would compare to 310k last week and 447k a year ago at this time.
For Monday’s USDA report, the trade expects the 2025/26 U.S. wheat carryout near 863 million bushels and projects the 2025 wheat crop at 1.885 billion bushels, down from last year’s 1.971 billion.

Amanda Brill