TFM Morning Update 05-10-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after two consecutively lower closes, but remains in an upward trend from February. July corn closed slightly below the 100-day moving average yesterday but is back above it this morning. Higher wheat prices are likely supporting corn.
In Brazil, the forecast for the central and northern regions of the country is showing above normal temperatures with little to no rain over the next week which could damage the crop. Argentina is also struggling with its corn crop due to the leafhopper bugs.
In today’s report, expectations are that old crop stocks will fall slightly to 2.098 billion bushels, that new crop production will be pegged at 14.9 bb which would be down from last year, and that South American production will be revised lower.

Soybeans are trading higher this morning, but similar to corn were down for two trading days in a row which saw July futures fall below the 100-day moving average. Both soybean meal and oil are slightly higher this morning.
The flooding in Rio Grande do Sul remains a large problem for the soybeans that were not harvested and will likely show a loss in production which could have been soybeans that were destined to be exported to Argentina to be crushed.
Estimates for today’s WASDE report are calling for old crop ending stocks to be mostly unchanged at 341 mb while new crop production estimates are around 4.43 billion bushels which would be up from last year. As in corn, South American production is expected to be lowered.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as prices consolidate above the 200-day moving average. There have been concerns over Russia’s wheat crop and the early frosts occurring there which could cause yields to fall.
Argentina’s 24/25 wheat production is expected to rise by 20% to 18.1 mmt as a result of expanded acreage by 5.2% and beneficial rains that have put the farmland in a good position ahead of planting according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
Estimates for today’s report are expected to show that old crop ending stocks will be lowered by around 11 mb to 689 mb, and that all new crop wheat production will be around 1.895 bb which would be higher than last year.

Amanda Brill