TFM Morning Update 05-12-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as the May contract prepares to go off the board today at nearly a 50-cent premium to July.
The first deliveries against the May contract were made last night at 50,000 bushels delivered by ADM.
Today’s WASDE may show small declines in export sales and ethanol production but could raise feed and residual usage.
The USDA will likely have new crop ending stocks above 2 billion bushels and are expected to increase Brazilian production but lower Argentinian production.

Soybeans are trading higher with soybean meal posting the biggest percentage gains but soybean oil moving higher as well thanks to slightly higher crude.
Brazil’s soybean production is estimated at 154.8 mmt by CONAB vs previous estimates of 153.6 mmt. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey are expecting 155.1 mmt.
Argentina’s soybean harvest is estimated at 51.6% complete with production estimates unchanged at 22.5 mmt.
Despite falling crush margins, NOPA April US soybean crush was seen at 174.17 mb compared to 185.81 mb the previous month.

Wheat is trading higher ahead of today’s WASDE report as trade worries about yield estimates the USDA may provide.
Traders are expecting new crop ending stocks to be estimated at just over 600 mb which would leave a similar all wheat balance sheet to the one we have this year.
The meetings between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN ended yesterday without an agreement to the continuation of the Black Sea grain deal which is supporting prices today.
Argentina is trying to bring its genetically modified wheat to market and has been significantly expanding access to distributors in Argentina.

Amanda Brill