TFM Morning Update 05-12-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher to start the week following a trade agreement over the weekend between the US and China. Many traders are expecting a bearish WASDE report, but futures are already oversold and now have support of higher soybeans.
Today at 11am central, the USDA will release its WASDE report, and trade expects US old crop ending stocks to fall to 1.444 bb which would be down 21 mb from April. This would likely come from an increase in exports.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn in a big way. They sold 57,436 contracts which significantly reduced their net long position to just 13,893 contracts.

Soybeans are trading significantly higher this morning following a meeting between Trump and China’s Xi this weekend in which they announced a deal, that each country would cut tariffs. The US will cut tariffs from 145% to 30%, and Beijing will cut tariffs to 10% from 125%.
Today, the WASDE report will be released and trade expects the 2024/25 U.S. soybean carryout near 369 million bushels vs USDA’s 374, and 2025/26 at 362 million. The expected 2025 U.S. soybean crop is projected at 4.338 billion bushels, slightly below last year’s 4.366 billion.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 16,332 contracts which left them with a net long position of 21,870 contracts. They sold 6,649 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 56,738 contracts, and sold 5,230 contracts of meal leaving them short 103,457 contracts.

Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago unchanged, KC higher, and Minneapolis lower. This quiet trade comes despite the sharp rally in soybeans and the announcement of the trade negotiations. The dollar surged after the announcement which could be pressuring wheat.
Estimates for Today’s WASDE reports see the trade expecting the 2025/26 U.S. wheat carryout near 863 million bushels and projects the 2025 wheat crop at 1.885 billion bushels, down from last year’s 1.971 billion.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of Chicago wheat by 7,681 contracts which decreased their net short position to 113,734 contracts. They sold 4,971 contracts of KC wheat which left them short 72,240 contracts.

Amanda Brill