TFM Morning Update 05-13-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning following yesterday’s friendly WASDE report and news of a trade agreement with China as crop progress data came out more bullish than expected.
Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress Report saw corn planting at 62% complete which compared to the average trade estimate of 60%, 40% completion last week, and the 5-year average of 56% at this time. 28% of the crop is emerged which compared to 11% a week ago and the average of 21%.
Yesterday’s WASDE report showed US ending stocks for 24/25 corn falling from April’s estimate to 1.415 bb from 1.465 bb. For 25/25, ending stocks are projected at 1.80 bb which was well below analyst estimates as a result of increased export demand.

Soybeans are trading lower giving back part of yesterday’s trade deal gains as fast planting remains prevalent and pressures prices. Soybean meal is trading lower, but soybean oil is once again following crude oil higher.
The Crop Progress Report saw soybean plantings at 48% complete which was higher than the trade guess of 47% and compared to 30% completion a week ago and the 5-year average of 37%. 17% of the crop is emerged which compared to 7% a week ago and the average of 11%.
Yesterday’s WASDE report was also bullish for soybeans showing lower than expected ending stocks. For 24/25, bean ending stocks are forecast at 350 mb which was down from 375 mb last month, and 25/26 ending stocks are forecast at just 295 mb which was below the average trade guess. World ending stocks were also lowered by 2.6 mmt.

All three wheat classes are lower this morning making new contract lows following a bearish WASDE and unfriendly crop progress report. At this point, for July Chicago wheat, support is likely now at the 5 dollar mark.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed spring wheat plantings well ahead of expectations at 66% completion. This compared to the trade guess of 62% and the 5-year average of 49%. 27% of the crop is emerged which compared to 13% a week ago and the average of 19%.
Winter wheat’s Crop Report results were bearish as well with another improvement in ratings. Crop ratings jumped to 54% good to excellent which was higher than the trade guess of 51%, last week’s 51%, and the average of 49%. 53% of the crop is headed which compared to 39% a week ago and the average of 45%.

Amanda Brill