TFM Morning Update 05-15-2024

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after facing pressure yesterday, and the December contract is now trading above the 200-day moving average. Corn remains in an upward trend as rains slow planting.
This morning, forecasts are pointing to three larger rain systems that are expected to move through the Corn Belt over the next 10 days. Corn plantings are already 11% behind a year ago at this time.
Yesterday, CONAB released its estimates for the Brazilian corn crop, and production was lowered to 111.6 mmt citing lower yields but expanded planted acreage. This is much lower than the USDA’s last guess of 122 mmt.

Soybeans are higher this morning and are recovering from yesterday’s losses that were caused by sharply lower soybean oil. Both soybean meal and oil are higher now, and both July and November soybeans are trading above their 100-day moving averages.
Yesterday, new tariffs were placed on Chinese goods such as computer chips, minerals, and EVs. This caused concerns over retaliation from China in the way of fewer imports of US soybeans, and there was disappointment that used cooking oil was not included in the tariffs.
Soybean crush from April is seen at 185.5 million bushels according to a Bloomberg survey which would be 7.1% higher than crush a year ago at this time but would be down 5.5% from a month ago.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Chicago leading the way higher as support comes from worries over Russian production as wheat growing areas in the country struggle with frost. In the US, winter wheat yields may be improving.
Yesterday, crop scouts on the crop tour saw that wheat yields in Kansas achieved a 3-year high at around 49.9 bpa thanks to favorable weather. This estimate was up from the 5-year average of 42.7 bpa and would be well above last year.
SovEcon has lowered its estimate for the 2024 Russian wheat crop to 85.7 mmt citing losses from unseasonable frost and also reporting that about 1 million of all crops may need to be replanted. This new estimate compares to the previous one of 89.6 mmt.

Amanda Brill