TFM Morning Update 05-15-2025

CORN

Corn is trading lower this morning but is off its recent low of the year at $4.36-1/2. Yesterday, futures were able to come off their lows for a higher close, and this morning, they are likely pressured by lower soybean and bean oil.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 1,200 and 2,100k tons with an average guess of 1,575k tons. This would compare to 1,681k last week and 870k a year ago at this time.
Yesterday’s ethanol production data was disappointing with only 993,000 gallons per day reported by the EIA, the average guess was 1.031m. Stocks rose by 1% to 25.445m bbl which compared to the analyst estimate of 25.067m.

Soybeans are sharply lower to start the day as a result of limit down soybean oil. The EPA administrator, Lee Zeldin, confirmed the agency will complete a rulemaking process to set new renewable fuel standards which has shaken up the market. The renewable volume obligations numbers were supposed to be released soon, not in a few months.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 950k tons with an average guess of 667k. This would compare to 386k last week and 291k tons a year ago.
Projections for the US April soybean crush see an average of 183.8 million bushels. This would compare to 194.6 mb in March but 169.5 mb a year ago at this time.

All three wheat classes are trading only slightly lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex. Slowly, futures have been managing to climb off Tuesday’s contract lows with prices seemingly too cheap compared to corn.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales between 150k and 700k tons with an average guess of 469k tons. This would compare to 563k last week and 383k tons a year ago at this time.
Persistent fund selling continues to pressure the market which has been driven by recent rainfall across key winter wheat regions and rapid spring wheat planting progress in the Northern Plains.

Amanda Brill