TFM Morning Update 05-16-2023

CORN

Corn is trading slightly lower in the December contract but found support yesterday near the 5-dollar level.
Yesterday evening, the USDA said that 65% of the corn crop has been planted which is above the 5-year average of 59%.
Iowa and Illinois are 86% and 84% completed respectively while North Dakota is the most behind at just 5% planted.
With corn production in Brazil expected to be record large at 130 mmt, July corn prices on the Bovespa exchange fell 1.2% yesterday to a new 2-year low.

Soybeans are trading lower with soybean meal and oil lower as well. Soybean oil has the largest percentage loss due to lower crude oil.
Trade is bracing for a record US soybean harvest this fall and Brazil is already highly expected to produce a record crop, but Argentina is expected to produce nearly half of what it would in a normal year due to drought.
The USDA reported a private sale yesterday of 100,000 tonnes of US soybean meal to Poland for the 22/23 marketing year.
The USDA said that the soybean crop is now 49% planted vs 35% last week, and 27% this time a year ago. Emergence is at 20% from 9% last week.

Wheat is slightly lower after yesterday’s rally but is hesitant to move higher until there is some word on the Black Sea grain deal.
The UN has been attempting to get Russia to agree to extend the deal but has not been successful with the deadline just two days away. The final two ships under the agreement will leave the Black Sea today.
The HRW wheat quality tour is beginning today and will shed light on how bad the wheat crop is. Kansas is estimated to have the lowest crop in over 50 years.
The USDA said yesterday that 29% of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent while 68% of the Kansas crop is rated poor to very poor, the worst assessment since 1989.

Amanda Brill