TFM Morning Update 05-16-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after bull spreading action yesterday that saw the front month higher and deferred contracts lower. For example, July futures are currently unchanged on the week while December futures are down nearly three cents.
Yesterday’s export sales report was supportive for corn with better than expected sales. Corn sales increased to 2,186k tons which compared to 1,681k the previous week and 870k a year ago. Top buyers were Mexico, South Korea, and Japan.
Weather has been a bearish factor lately with rain in the Corn Belt expected over the next 7 days, but the 30 day forecast for the Western Belt is much drier and could be an issue.

Soybeans are trading higher to start the day after a sharp sell off yesterday driven by soybean oil. Soybean oil is lower again this morning on the same bearish news and meal is lower as well.
Yesterday The EPA administrator, Lee Zeldin, confirmed the agency will complete a rulemaking process to set new renewable fuel standards. The renewable volume obligations numbers were supposed to be released soon, not in a few months, and this has caused fears that the obligations numbers will be lower than previously hoped.
Yesterday’s export sales for soybeans were within expectations at 773k tons which compared to 387k the previous week and 290k a year ago. Top buyers were Pakistan, Mexico, and Egypt.

All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning, but the trend this week has been lower prices overnight followed by higher closes. For the week, July Chicago futures are set to gain around 11 cents after making a new contract low earlier this week.
Yesterday’s export sales were better than expected for wheat at 805k tons which compared to 563k last week and 383k a year ago at this time. Top buyers were unknown, the Philippines, and Mexico.
In Ukraine, the 2025 spring grain sowing is now at 87% complete with 4.95 million hectares planted. This compares to 5.1 million sown last year. 215,200 hectares is spring wheat, the majority is barley.

Amanda Brill