TFM Morning Update 05-17-2023


  • Corn is trading lower again after a sharp selloff yesterday that affected the entire grain complex.
  • Last week’s WASDE report that estimated US corn production at 2.22 billion bushels while also estimating Brazilian corn production at a record high has had a big bearish effect on grains.
  • US export sales will not have much of a window as Brazilian corn is nearing harvest and is expected to be 130 mmt.
  • The Black Sea grain deal expires tomorrow and so far there has been no resolution between the countries.


  • Soybeans sold off sharply yesterday led lower by over a 4% decline in July soybean oil. Soybeans, soybean meal and oil are all lower again this morning.
  • Soybean oil has been under pressure from the palm oil market which has been floundering as demand from India wanes and supplies remain stout.
  • In India, oilmeal exports have fallen significantly with soymeal exports falling to 177,243 tons from 235,233 tons in March.
  • Conditions in Nebraska and Kansas remain dry but have received some showers lately but overall, a record soybean crop is possible in the US barring a weather event.


  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago lower but KC and Minn slightly higher as the HRW wheat tour finds the crop in Kansas badly damaged by drought and cold.
  • Argentina’s 23/24 wheat output is being estimated at 18 mmt which would be a 45% increase year over year, and they have expanded acres by 3%.
  • Crop scouts in Kansas are projecting the average yield for the northern part of the state at just 29.8 bpa, the worst for the tour’s first day since 2003.
  • With no extension in sight for the Black Sea deal, the corridor is now nearly empty with only seven outbound vessels left in safe passage.


Amanda Brill

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