TFM Morning Update 05-18-2023


  • Corn is trading lower for the third consecutive day with December below the 5-dollar mark.
  • Yesterday’s news that Russia would agree to extend the Black Sea grain deal at the last moment triggered fund selling and added pressure to corn and wheat.
  • Yesterday the USDA reported the fourth sales cancellation by China of 10.7 mb of corn, but China still has about 89 mb of outstanding sales in the US.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report in corn are between -300k and 650k tons with an average guess of 185k.


  • Soybeans and soybean meal are lower this morning while soybean oil is slightly higher as palm oil futures begin to level off.
  • China’s soybean imports reached a record high of 8.8 million tons this April as their economy recovers and demand increases.
  • Brazil’s soybean harvest achieved its record high mark which the USDA estimates at 155 mmt which is the most soybeans ever grown by any country ever as their production continues to expand.
  • Soybean export sales are expected to be in a range between 50k and 600k tons with an average guess of 298k.


  • Wheat is trading lower again this morning after yesterday’s surprise renewal of the Black Sea grain deal spurred heavy selling. This agreement will last for two months.
  • Yesterday’s crop tour showed wheat yields in Kansas falling below the USDA’s estimates at an average of just 27.5 bpa vs 37 bpa a year ago.
  • With the severe drought ravaging US wheat, the US has had to resort to rare wheat imports with two cargoes of Polish grain arriving in Florida this year.
  • The HRW wheat crop tour will move to Manhattan, KS today where conditions are more favorable, and the tour will offer its final estimates.


Amanda Brill

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