TFM Morning Update 05-19-2023


  • Corn is trading higher this morning as December corn finds support at the 5-dollar level. The July contract is on track to end the week with a loss while the loss in December would only be slight at these levels.
  • July corn struggled more than new crop this week due to poor demand news which included a cancelled Chinese sale and a bad export sales report.
  • In Brazil, the upcoming corn crop does not seem to have traders concerned as futures on the Bovespa exchange continue to make new lows.
  • Ukrainian corn plantings so far in 2023 are lagging behind the previous year at just 3.3 million hectares vs 4.2 m the previous year.


  • Soybeans, soybean meal and oil are all trading higher this morning with support from higher crude and a lower US dollar.
  • Slowing domestic demand is pressuring the July contract as soybean crush premiums decline to the lowest levels seen since last summer.
  • Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut their soybean forecast again by 6.7% to 21 mmt. Their previous estimate was 22.5 mmt, and the USDA’s estimate remains unchanged at 27 mmt.
  • Barge shipments down the Mississippi River declined in the week ending May 13 with soybean shipments down 61% week over week.


  • Wheat is trading slightly higher this morning, most likely partially due to end of week profit taking but also in response to the HRW wheat tour results.
  • The tour estimated Kansas wheat production at 178 mb with a yield estimate of 30 bpa. The tour estimated a very high level of abandonment expecting only 5.9 million acres vs the USDA’s 6.6 ma.
  • Russia is planning to discuss wheat and meat exports at a Chinese business forum where they will attempt to expand exports to China.
  • Three new inbound vessels were approved for the Ukraine export corridor following the renewal of the deal. Two of those ships are preparing for inspection in Istanbul and the other was stranded in Ukraine since March 2022 and is finally departing.


Amanda Brill

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