TFM Morning Update 05-19-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning after Friday’s small sell-off. This morning, prices are supported by a decline in the US dollar, and poor weather in Argentina that likely damaged grain.
In the northern region of Buenos Aires, Argentina, thousands of residents were evacuated over the weekend as a result of severe flooding. This area is an agricultural hub, and unharvested acres and some grain facilities were likely impacted.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as major sellers of corn. They sold a whopping 98,869 contracts as of May 13 which brought them from a long position to a net short position of 84,976 contracts.

Soybeans are trading higher along with the rest of the grain complex in slightly more positive momentum this week. Futures are still hovering above their major moving averages which have acted as support. Soybean meal is lower while bean oil is higher.
In Brazil, productivity with the current soybean crop has been good which has kept supply high and has also caused prices to fall, especially as is seems further trade negotiations between the US and China are incoming.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans as of May 13 by 16,537 contracts which increased their net long position to 38,407 contracts. They were buyers of bean oil by 10,694 contracts and buyers of meal by 712 contracts.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with the biggest bullish factor most likely the decline in the US dollar. Moody downgraded the US credit rating which has negatively impacted stocks and the dollar.
In Ukraine, the 2025 spring grain sowing is now at 87% complete with 4.95 million hectares planted. This compares to 5.1 million sown last year. 215,200 hectares is spring wheat, the majority is barley.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 13,161 contracts which left them with a net short position of 126,895 contracts. They sold 8,559 contracts of KC wheat which left them short 80,799 contracts.

Amanda Brill