TFM Morning Update 05-20-2025

CORN

Corn is trading higher this morning following very strong export inspections yesterday and support from a rallying wheat market. With funds now holding a large net short position, there is a better chance for short covering rallies.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw the corn crop at 78% planted which was one point below the average trade guess and compared to 62% a week ago and the average of 73%. 50% of the crop is emerged which compared to the average of 40%.
In the northern region of Buenos Aires, Argentina, thousands of residents were evacuated over the weekend as a result of severe flooding following up to 10 inches of rain. This area is an agricultural hub, and unharvested acres and some grain facilities were likely impacted.

Soybeans are trading slightly higher to start the day, but overall have been stagnant this week with prices hovering just above the major moving averages. Soybean meal is trading higher while bean oil is lower.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw that 66% of the soybean crop is planted which was one point above trade estimate and compared to 48% last week and the average of 53%. 34% of the crop is emerged which compared to 17% a week ago and the average of 23% for this time.
Yesterday’s export inspections saw just 218k tons of soybeans inspected for export which compared to 440k last week and 192k tons a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, Egypt, and Taiwan.

All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with KC wheat leading the way following reports of frost in the Northern Plains last weekend and then a decline in crop ratings in yesterday’s report.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw winter wheat crop conditions fall by two points to 52% good to excellent. This was also below the average trade guess and compared to 49% a year ago. 64% of the crop is headed which compared to 53% last week and the average of 58%.
Spring wheat is estimated at 82% planted which was 2 points ahead of trade estimates, compares to 66% a week ago, and the average of 65%. 45% of the crop is emerged which compares to 27% a week ago and the average of 34%.

Amanda Brill