CORN
- Most analysts agree with the USDA’s 2024/25 Supply and Demand estimates; however, some believe that the USDA is overestimating 2025/26 U.S. corn exports by about 275 million bushels, which would raise the projected carryout to around 2.025 billion bushels.
- Concerns over delayed U.S. corn planting and potentially reduced final acreage are providing price support. Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers have increased cash corn sales, and Argentina is set to raise its export tax.
- Argentina currently offers the cheapest export corn, while EU corn imports are up 8% and exports are down 44%.
SOYBEANS
- Dalian futures for soybeans, soymeal, palm oil, and soyoil all moved higher. Matif rapeseed prices also rose on concerns about dry weather in Germany.
- One group lowered its estimate for 2024/25 U.S. soybean crush by 20 million bushels, raising carryout to 374 million bushels. For 2025/26, they reduced crush estimates by 75 million bushels versus the USDA, but increased export projections by 200 million bushels, resulting in a projected carryout of 500 million bushels compared to the USDA’s 295 million.
- EU oilseed imports are up 11%, soymeal imports up 13%, and vegetable oil imports down 24%. Volatility in soybean oil continues amid uncertainty around a 45% tax incentive.
WHEAT
- Wheat futures rallying on a weaker U.S. dollar, increased wheat feeding, and concerns over crop conditions. Russia’s largest wheat-producing region declared a state of emergency due to a poor crop—making it the third region to do so.
- Rainfall forecasts of 3 to 5 inches over the next seven days for Missouri and southern Illinois are also influencing the market.
- EU wheat exports are down 33%, and imports are down 18%. Matif wheat futures are trading higher.
Author
Matt Mattke